The Buffalo Sabres present an interesting prediction conundrum when projecting the team’s ceiling this year: Success in the NHL playoffs is predicated upon a team’s forward depth to make meaningful contributions, and this team appears to have playoff-level depth on the bottom half of its forward lineup, but to make the playoffs, a team needs more high-end talent than the Sabres seem to have at the top. That is, unless, key pieces we will discuss here are able to meet a high standard of production. Before getting into that, though, let’s recap the previous forward lines:
In terms of forwards, no player’s contribution to the team’s success will be more important than that of Josh Norris. The 6’2” American center acquired from Ottawa in exchange for Dylan Cozens is a talented shoot-first center whose career has been severely hampered by repeated shoulder surgeries. Norris was originally drafted 19th overall in 2017 by the San Jose Sharks and then subsequently dealt to the Ottawa Senators as part of a package for defenseman Erik Karlsson before Norris ever played a game for San Jose. Three shoulder surgeries before the age of 26 were apparently enough for the Ottawa Senators to pull the rip cord on Norris after parts of five seasons as they decided that they’d be better off gambling on the professional rehabilitation of Cozens rather than to gamble on the continued injury risk that Norris poses.
That injury risk is astronomically large.
In his five “full” seasons as an NHL regular, Norris has never played more than the 66 games he suited up for during the 2019-2020 season wherein he posted a very decent 35 goals and 20 assists for 55 points. While this is not an article to rehash the merits of the Cozens-for-Norris trade, it is important to consider that Cozens has played at least 79 games in each of his last four seasons. There is substantial risk for the Sabres here even if they believe that Norris has a higher offensive ceiling – a contention that in itself is a dubious proposition. The Sabres should be positively thrilled with Norris if they are able to get 70 healthy games out of him this season. As their first line center, this is an enormous gamble which leaves General Manager Kevyn Adams holding a hand grenade with its pin pulled. One wonders if the Sabres would consider a load management routine like those seen in the NBA whereby Norris could be given some games off to limit the possibility of further injury to his thrice-repaired shoulder.
Next to Norris on the right wing will be a man without a contract extension: Alex Tuch. He has been every bit as advertised since joining the Sabres as part of the Jack Eichel trade back in 2021. This past season, Tuch set the NHL record for most blocked shots from any forward (113) while also adding 36 goals, six of which came while the Sabres were shorthanded.
That stat bears repeating: No forward has blocked more shots in a single NHL season than Alex Tuch did in 2024-25.
The team and Tuch are seemingly at an impasse regarding a contract due to the Sabres’ continued run of abject failure. The team’s failure will continue – and escalate further – if Kevyn Adams allows Tuch to hit free agency next year. Yes, Tuch is 29 years old, and yes, he shot an unsustainable 18.4% last year, but this team has no ability to attract a player of Tuch’s caliber, and they are in no position to let him leave regardless of his contract demands. He is undoubtedly the best two-way forward the team has had since Chris Drury left the Sabres in July of 2007.
Lastly on this line we have 20-year-old LW Zach Benson. The 2023 13th overall pick has become something of a lightning rod among the fan base in terms of praise for his fantastic underlying advanced stats and criticism for his mediocre counting stats. Regardless of which side of the spectrum you may fall on, Benson does not deserve this level of scrutiny, praise or criticism.
Benson’s presence on the top line is an indictment of the continued roster-building failures of Kevyn Adams. Benson does not deserve this level of scrutiny because he does not deserve to be handed this job without competition.
It’s absolutely absurd that this young man who cannot legally buy a beer, and who only scored 28 points last year, will be counted on to take a top-six role when by all good sense he should be guaranteed no more than a third-line role. If Benson fails to produce at a first-line rate offensively, that failure is not on him. Adams owns this roster decision and that failure would be his alone. The team is sitting on $5.2 million in unused cap space.
Overall, this first line is a flimsy house of cards waiting for the tiniest breeze to knock it over. Only Tuch presents as a legitimate first line talent. The Sabres need every single break to fall their way if this forward lineup is to hold up over 82 games.