As December opens, the NFL’s MVP conversation has narrowed into a remarkably tight two-man duel: the established veteran redefining longevity with the Los Angeles Rams, and the 2nd year phenom reshaping the New England Patriots’ offensive identity. Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye have pushed their teams into legitimate contention, and both have delivered seasons worthy of award-level scrutiny.
Below is a full breakdown of where the race stands following Week 13 — including team performance, individual milestones, and the statistical edge each quarterback brings.
Matthew Stafford: Historic Efficiency Driving the Rams
Team Performance
The Los Angeles Rams sit at 9–3, though their momentum briefly stalled in Week 13. A six-game winning streak was halted in a 31–28 loss to the Carolina Panthers on November 30. It was a rare off day for an offense that had been almost effortless throughout November.
Individual Achievements
Even with the setback, Stafford’s season remains one of the most efficient in modern NFL history.
- He set an NFL record with 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception, surpassing Tom Brady’s previous mark of 27.
- As of November 30, he also led the league with 32 touchdown passes, a pace that had elevated him to the MVP betting lead entering Week 13.
Stafford’s touchdown total continues to anchor his argument, especially considering how crucial his scoring efficiency has been to the Rams’ 9–3 start.
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Drake Maye: The Young QB Driving New England to the League’s Best Record
Team Performance
The Patriots’ rebuild has looked more like a reinvention. Sitting at 11–2, New England owns the league’s best record and is riding a 10-game winning streak after a 33–15 victory over the New York Giants on December 1.
Individual Achievements
Maye’s statistical profile stacks up with the most polished quarterbacks in the league.
- 276 of 386 passing (71.0%)
- 3,412 yards
- 23 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
- 111.9 passer rating
Against the Giants, he was nearly flawless: 24 of 31 for 282 yards and two touchdowns, once again emphasizing command, accuracy, and poise beyond his years.
Traditional Statistics: How Stafford and Maye Stack Up
A head-to-head look at the core numbers shows two quarterbacks producing at an elite level, but in very different ways.
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| Statistic | Matthew Stafford | Drake Maye |
|---|---|---|
| Team Record | 9-3 | 11-2 |
| Attempts | 401 | 386 |
| Completions | 266 | 276 |
| Completion % | 66.3% | 71.5% |
| Passing Yards | 3,073 | 3,412 |
| Passing TDs | 32 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 111.7 | 111.9 |
| Rushing Attempts | 25 | 81 |
| Rushing Yards | -10 | 319 |
| Rushing TDs | 0 | 2 |
What the traditional stats say:
Stafford owns the edge in touchdown production (32 vs. 23), ball security (just 4 interceptions), and remains one of the league’s most efficient red-zone passers. But Maye counters with better accuracy, more yards through the air, and vastly superior rushing value. The Patriots’ 11–2 record—best in football—sets the tone for his MVP argument.
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Advanced Metrics: Who Drives More Value?
| Metric | Matthew Stafford | Drake Maye |
|---|---|---|
| Total EPA | 47.88 | 112.16 |
| EPA Per Play | 0.108 | 0.221 |
| Success Rate | 49.4% | 50.3% |
| Explosive Passes (20+ yards) | 45 | 49 |
| Explosive Play Rate | 10.2% | 9.7% |
Drake Maye almost doubles Stafford in Total EPA, the clearest single-number measure of quarterback value. His higher efficiency per play and similar explosive-play output show that his production isn’t just volume—it’s impact.
Performance Under Pressure
| Metric | Stafford | Maye |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure Rate | 27.1% | 30.8% |
| Completion % Under Pressure | 43.7% | 59.3% |
| Yards Under Pressure | 543 | 1,082 |
| TDs Under Pressure | 4 | 10 |
| INTs Under Pressure | 0 | 2 |
| EPA/Play Under Pressure | -0.530 | 0.005 |
Here’s where the gap widens:
Maye isn’t just surviving pressure—he’s beating it. Doubling Stafford’s yards under pressure and throwing 10 touchdowns in those situations is borderline unprecedented for a sophomore.
Situational Performance
| Metric | Stafford | Maye |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd Down Completion % | 50.5% | 65.7% |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 50.0% | 54.1% |
| Red Zone Completion % | 65.4% | 61.7% |
| Red Zone Passing TDs | 26 | 14 |
| Red Zone Rushing TDs | 0 | 2 |
| Deep Ball Completion % | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| Deep Ball TDs | 5 | 6 |
Stafford dominates inside the 20—26 red zone touchdowns is historic—but Maye again owns third downs and explosive deep-ball efficiency.
Mobility and Scrambling
| Metric | Stafford | Maye |
|---|---|---|
| Scrambles | 3 | 49 |
| Scramble Yards | 11 | 321 |
| Designed Runs | 0 | 1 |
| Yards Per Carry | -0.4 | 3.9 |
| Rushing First Downs | 0 | 28 |
This is where the MVP race divides in philosophy:
Stafford is a pure pocket passer playing elite football.
Maye is creating extra possessions, first downs, and drives with his legs—things that aren’t available in Stafford’s toolbox.
The MVP Case for Each
Why Matthew Stafford Has a Real MVP Claim
- NFL-leading 32 touchdown passes
- Only 4 interceptions, the best ratio among elite QBs
- Record-breaking streak: 28 straight TD passes without a pick
- Red Zone dominance: 26 touchdown passes inside the 20
- Zero interceptions under pressure, maintaining composure despite negative EPA
Why Drake Maye Has the Stronger MVP Argument
- NFL-best 11–2 record, carrying New England back into contention
- Historic efficiency: EPA more than doubled Stafford’s
- 71.5% completion rate, elite by any standard
- Over 3,700 total yards between passing and rushing
- Dual-threat impact that reshapes defenses
- Exceptional under-pressure production: 10 TDs, 59.3% accuracy
- Elite third-down performer, extending drives at a top-in-the-league rate
Final Verdict
Matthew Stafford is having arguably the best passing season of his career—brilliant efficiency, touchdown volume, and record-setting ball security. But MVP awards reward value, and Drake Maye is influencing more parts of the game.
Between team success, advanced efficiency, mobility, pressure performance, and overall play-to-play value, Maye’s case is stronger through Week 13. Stafford is playing at an MVP level; Maye is playing at a level that defines a season.